Current work list (continue from any machine)

todo-current.md · full hand-off

CURRENT WORK LIST — updated 2026-09-14 13:05 KST (first written 09:15) on the bot box (DESKTOP-3EHP138). Read this first on any other machine.

WHERE THINGS ARE
- Full hand-off (state, rules, recipes): https://timeportal.pro/polymarket/handoff/HANDOFF-2026-09-13-bot-box.md (same file in the VPS kit /home/claude/CONTINUITY/current/handoff/2026-09-13-bot-box/HANDOFF.md).
- Owner-demands ledger (every order, numbered): VPS kit /home/claude/CONTINUITY/current/USER-DEMANDS-LEDGER.md (copy of D:\work\bfm\apps\USER-DEMANDS-LEDGER.md on the bot box). Items 42–61 are 2026-09-13/14.
- Memory files (rules the owner gave, with the verbatim words): VPS kit /home/claude/CONTINUITY/current/memory/ (synced 2026-09-14 09:15 KST from the bot box). Read MEMORY.md there first.
- Bot code: /srv/git/pmtrade.git on the VPS (commit 42ba94b = ladder settings from superadmin) and the packaged release in /srv/git/pmstack.git (see dist/RELEASE-LOG.md in the package).

WHAT IS LIVE
1. The what-if pages (history, analysis, cell, sweet spot) run the rebuilt engine: buy at the level if reached in play before the ladder kill; sell at the target only if reached before the kill; otherwise settle, a won game pays $1 per share. Best cell on the TP-only favourites, all matches: buy at 0.05× the opening price, sell at 50¢, +$168.21 on 22 fills.
2. Superadmin can spec the buy ladder (cents or percent of the opening price; sized in dollars or percent of the bankroll) and the sell ladder (cents or percent of the buy-in; sized as a share of the shares held), up to five rungs each. Both values are EMPTY (hub has no opinion) until the owner commits on superadmin. The bot code that honours them is merged and pushed. ALL BOTS ARE PAUSED until the owner picks a ladder.

LIVE SINCE 13:00 KST (what-if pages, second build)
3. On every what-if page: leave out any single match with its tick box; the strip at the top lists the left-out matches with a x per match and a clear button; every table, chart, tooltip and copy panel recounts "of TOTAL after leaving out n"; left-out rows stay visible, greyed, and can be ticked back. The tape itself is never changed. Also live: the selected setting beside doing nothing (buy at the open and hold, same entry and hold, neighbouring settings, match by match); what the tapes covered day by day (history page); profit through time with running high and low, largest fall, weekly bars and dollars tied up (history page); which cohort and sport groups made or lost money, sorted by net per dollar staked (analysis page); the heatmap's own "X view: % of opening price | fixed cents" control; beige background with black text and links on every match table; header sorting in place without a page reload; stop-grid text that scales with the chart, its time axis to 2.5 hours, its x axis named with its unit. Every first-half/second-half sentence is gone.
4. Superadmin labels in plain words (every code replaced by its meaning, machine key kept as a small grey line), live since 09:35.

RUNNING ON THE BOT BOX NOW (do not edit the four what-if pages on the VPS until it lands)
5. Next what-if build: curves of net against the buy level (cents, times the opening price, times the pregame line), against the sell target, and the neighbouring-setting differences match by match; and the entry-timing grid (start after a minutes, cancel unfilled entries after b minutes or a share of the scheduled duration). Brief: mirror docs/WHATIF-BUILD-3-CURVES-20260914.md. After it: after-the-fill reach and the ladder's money over time with cancel-remaining-rungs triggers (docs/WHATIF-BUILD-4-AFTER-FILL-AND-LADDER-20260914.md).

OWNER RULES GIVEN 2026-09-13/14 (verbatim in the memory files)
- The pages are WHAT-IF pages: what WOULD have happened at these settings. A won game pays $1 per share; a later 50¢ print never changes that. Match-end and the old hindsight rule are URL-only alternatives, never the printed default.
- Nobody on the AI side analyses. Build charts and tables that intermix conditions (filters, sorting, cohorts, windows, per-match exclusion) so the OWNER analyses. No interpretive prose anywhere.
- No time-window comparisons of any kind. The only thing that "fundamentally changes" is a one-off match; exclude THAT match by checkbox, everywhere. The tape is never altered.
- No jargon, ever: say what anything really is. Never "Step 1", never a code name without its meaning. Never stop work to wait; go until done.
- Seats: Grok executes (all three Grok accounts hit 402 on 2026-09-13; check each once, then use an Opus subagent). Codex is for strategy and planning advice only, never builds. Fable directs, QCs, deploys.
- Every printed rate carries its count and population; formulas show their values; whole data first, subsets as x of TOTAL; floors of 10 with "too few" below; per sport; dollars at or above 100¢.

HOW TO DEPLOY THE WHAT-IF PAGES (recipe on the bot box; the other machine can do the same from the VPS docroot)
- Code first (pages, llm/*.py, llm/*.js, tests/), then regenerate ON the VPS as user claude with the two generator crons paused: llm/whatif_grid.py, llm/insight_records.py, llm/gen_llm_text.js (script /root/regen_step1_vps.sh does all of it), then md5-reconcile, then a browser sweep of the four live pages. The half-hourly crons overwrite the data files with whatever generator code is on the VPS, so never copy data files without the code.

OPEN FOR THE OWNER
- Pick the buy/sell ladder on superadmin and unpause the bots.
- Fill in any "(meaning not confirmed in code)" labels the superadmin pass could not resolve.