Analysis — where profit was takable, how often, and where it died

Each row is one sport and one cohort in this window. Void, pending and unknown are counted, never dropped. Fill rate is fills / opportunities. Win rate is game won / (game won + game lost). Net is the sum of unit-price differences in cents ($1-share-equivalent), without costs. Buy-and-hold is opening price to confirmed payout on the same matches. All sports uses the rows above — not a pooled fake sport.

One candidate, replayed once per eligible match. Colour is total net cents, zero-centred, shared by every sport panel. Each cell prints fills and net. The outlined cell is the greatest net among cells with at least the min-opportunities floor (default 10); cells under the floor stay drawn but hatched. It is compared with the next qualifying cell and with buy-and-hold on the same population. Never sum alternative cells. Tooltip: fill price/time ranges, exits, pending, permitted ceiling (hindsight). Click a cell for cell.php, then odds.php.

An opportunity is an eligible match scheduled for this candidate, before knowing whether it fills. Missing coverage does not remove a known opportunity. Print profitable count/denominator first, then the percentage and net. Outline and headline only cells with at least the min-opportunities floor (default 10); a 1/1 cell stays drawn but hatched. Unknown outcomes have a lower bound (known profitable / opportunities) and an upper bound (known profitable plus unresolved / opportunities). No coin-flip baseline.

Worst net (zero-centred). All sports draws separate panels, never a pooled panel.

Highest loss fraction (losing trades / opportunities). Same min-opportunities floor as A3; cells under the floor stay drawn but hatched and are not outlined.

Beside each outlined cell: game won/lost/void/pending crossed with sold at target, reached but unsold, never reached, observation incomplete. Bounce then die means a game loser touched the selected target before kill, remained unsold, and subsequently lost value. After-kill touches cannot rescue losers.

Every setting in the table above is replayed on the same matches under the same execution rule. “Filled by both” is the number of matches where this setting and that one both bought; the two net columns beside it are counted on exactly those matches, so the difference is a paired one. Matches only one of the two filled are counted separately and never folded into the difference. Click a header to sort; untick a match to leave it out everywhere.

The first row is every match in this selection counted once, whatever basket it sits in. A group with fewer filled matches than the floor prints its counts and “too few”, is drawn hollow and is listed after the ranked groups. A group that staked nothing has no return to read. Click a header to sort.