# timeportal.pro/polymarket — analysis (machine-readable text version)
generated_utc: 2026-09-14T05:55:04.615Z
source_data: odds_api.php?ladderfit=1 (generated 2026-09-14T02:23:11.000Z, n=494 matches)
human_page: https://timeportal.pro/polymarket/analysis.php
sibling_files: https://timeportal.pro/polymarket/llm/index.txt
how_to_read: one section per '## ' heading; tables are pipe-delimited with a header row and
  a units row; 'null' means not known; prices are in cents (0-100) unless a column says $.
source_list: odds_api.php?list=1 (generated 2026-09-14T05:53:00.000Z, n=597 matches)
cohort_source: history.php COHORT-CORE
health_source: history.php HEALTH-CORE
conclusions_source: history.php CONCLUSIONS-CORE
x_cents: 28
y_cents: 81

## definitions
Basket (who called the favourite) is the child_cfg stamp on the match:
TP-only (TP_ONLY) = our model only. Our model liked this pick and the market did NOT — we were
  backing the market's underdog.
TP+market (AGREED) = both agreed. Our model and the market agreed on the same side.
market-only (MKT_ONLY) = the market's favourite which we did not pick.
none (NONE / missing / pre-basket) = no basket stamp. Traded before baskets existed, so there is no
  child_cfg stamp to read. Shown as its own class rather than being lumped in with TP-only.

Cohorts (chips are exclusive unless + combine is on; tponly_won is a subset of tponly):
TP-only fav — TP-only fav: our model liked this pick and the market did not (basket TP_ONLY).
TP + market fav — TP + market fav: our model and the market called the same favourite (basket
  AGREED).
market-only fav — market-only fav: a match with no basket stamp (TP made no pick) whose tracked side
  opened at 50¢ or above, so the market favoured that side and TP made no pick. Rows with a TP pick
  never enter this cohort. The fav/opp labels on the tape are names, not a market-favourite flag —
  this chip uses the tracked side's opening price. Not the pipeline basket MKT_ONLY: that basket
  never armed because the shipped config backs the pick on our side, so a match where only the
  market likes the favourite is still backed on our pick — MKT_ONLY has no route to exist.
nobody's fav — nobody's fav: no basket stamp and the tracked side opened under 50¢, or any other
  basket.
all matches — all matches: every match in the file after the void/open filters. The ranking's cohort
  column shows each cell's cohort.
TP-only · won — TP-only · won: a TP-only favourite whose pick was the recorded winner.
TP-only · lost — TP-only · lost: a TP-only favourite whose pick was the recorded loser.

Result values (recorded outcome, never inferred from the last tape print):
won = our pick was the recorded winner (state/mkt winner_side = fav).
lost = the other side was the recorded winner (winner_side = opp).
void = the market was voided.
open / unrecorded = voided-or-missing is split: analysis.php maps anything other than won/lost/void
  to open; history.php draws void or not-yet-recorded as 'not recorded yet' (grey, off by default).
  A match with no recorded result must never be drawn as a win or a loss.

Buy window (bets open): win{} — the favourite's price range WHILE BETS WERE OPEN, the stretch a buy
  could still fill in. history.php's dark candle core.
After cutoff: after{} — the post-cutoff range, settlement walk excluded. history.php chart 3.
Tape: tape{} — every price this pick really traded, low to high (history.php pale bar). A winner
  runs to 100¢; a loser's drop to 0¢ is not range.

Reached ≤X¢ = win.lo <= X/100: the favourite traded at or below this many cents WHILE BETS WERE
  OPEN. Default X=28.
Reached ≥Y¢ = tape.hi >= Y/100: the favourite traded at or above this many cents at any time.
  Default Y=81.
Win rate = game won / (game won + game lost), printed as 37.2% (126/338). Void and open do not enter
  the denominator. Zero denominator → unavailable, not 0.

Ladder rung: one price level in the bot's buy or sell ladder. Index 0 is the pregame anchor — a
  reference price, never an order. Live buys start at rung 1. A rung is a bid (buy) or ask (sell)
  waiting at a cent price.
Anchor ¢: the pre-game line (price before the game started).
Windows on analysis.php end at the latest match with data, never wall-clock now. Bounds are
  inclusive.
Prices in these files are cents (0-100) unless a column says $. 'null' means not known.

## [A0] data health
Rolling windows from generator now, not calendar days. now=2026-09-14T05:55:04.615Z (2026-09-14
  14:55 KST).
source generated=2026-09-14T02:23:11.000Z (2026-09-14 11:23 KST).
all matches level=bad rule=no_games_24h
n_24h=0 n_48h=2 n_7d=49 expected_24h=7
newest=1 d 11 h ago · file=3 h 31 m old
newest_utc=2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z (2026-09-13 03:00 KST)
no games in the last 24 h against a 7-day average of 7 per day

cohort tponly (TP-only fav) level=bad rule=no_games_24h
n_24h=0 n_48h=2 n_7d=49 expected_24h=7
newest=1 d 11 h ago · file=3 h 31 m old
newest_utc=2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z (2026-09-13 03:00 KST)
no games in the last 24 h against a 7-day average of 7 per day

cohort agreed (TP + market fav) level=warn rule=source_stale_2h
n_24h=0 n_48h=0 n_7d=0 expected_24h=0
newest=38 d 15 h ago · file=3 h 31 m old
newest_utc=2026-08-06T14:00:00.000Z (2026-08-06 23:00 KST)
data file is 3 h 31 m old (over 2 h)

cohort mktonly (market-only fav) level=warn rule=source_stale_2h
n_24h=0 n_48h=0 n_7d=0 expected_24h=0
newest=n/a ago · file=3 h 31 m old
newest_utc=null
data file is 3 h 31 m old (over 2 h)

cohort nonfav (nobody's fav) level=warn rule=source_stale_2h
n_24h=0 n_48h=0 n_7d=0 expected_24h=0
newest=49 d 4 h ago · file=3 h 31 m old
newest_utc=2026-07-27T01:00:00.000Z (2026-07-27 10:00 KST)
data file is 3 h 31 m old (over 2 h)

cohort all (all matches) level=bad rule=no_games_24h
n_24h=0 n_48h=2 n_7d=49 expected_24h=7
newest=1 d 11 h ago · file=3 h 31 m old
newest_utc=2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z (2026-09-13 03:00 KST)
no games in the last 24 h against a 7-day average of 7 per day

cohort tponly_won (TP-only · won) level=bad rule=no_games_24h
n_24h=0 n_48h=1 n_7d=18 expected_24h=2.6
newest=1 d 11 h ago · file=3 h 31 m old
newest_utc=2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z (2026-09-13 03:00 KST)
no games in the last 24 h against a 7-day average of 2.6 per day

cohort tponly_lost (TP-only · lost) level=bad rule=no_games_24h
n_24h=0 n_48h=1 n_7d=30 expected_24h=4.3
newest=1 d 11 h ago · file=3 h 31 m old
newest_utc=2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z (2026-09-13 03:00 KST)
no games in the last 24 h against a 7-day average of 4.3 per day

Control defaults used below match analysis.php first paint: window as named, all sports, all
  baskets, include open off, X=28, Y=81.
Each [A1] grand total is the sum of detail rows (subtotals are per-sport repeats, not extra games).

## [A1] summary by sport and basket — window 1w
from 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=62 games · include_open=no · X=28¢ ·
  Y=81¢
same columns as #sumtab. kind=detail|subtotal|grand. Empty groups omitted, as the page does.
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.5 | 50.0 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.5 | 50.0 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 57 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 37.5 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 57 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 37.5 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |
| grand | all | total | 61 | 22 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 36.7 | 34 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 62 matches, window 1w (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only win rate 36.7% (22/60) of settled games (22 game won / 38 game lost, 61 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (61).
- fact: 1 void match counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

## [A2] summary by sport and basket, split by cohort — window 1w
Each cohort is the page chip of that name (union semantics). Window bounds are the same as [A1]
  (latest-match anchored), then matches are narrowed by applyCohorts.

### [A2.tponly] TP-only fav — window 1w
cohort=tponly · n=62 · from 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=62 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.5 | 50.0 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.5 | 50.0 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 57 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 37.5 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 57 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 37.5 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |
| grand | all | total | 61 | 22 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 36.7 | 34 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 62 matches, window 1w (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only win rate 36.7% (22/60) of settled games (22 game won / 38 game lost, 61 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (61).
- fact: 1 void match counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.agreed] TP + market fav — window 1w
cohort=agreed · n=0 · from 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=0 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
(no rows)

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1w.
- fact: No basket has games in this window.

### [A2.mktonly] market-only fav — window 1w
cohort=mktonly · n=0 · from 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=0 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
(no rows)

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1w.
- fact: No basket has games in this window.

### [A2.nonfav] nobody's fav — window 1w
cohort=nonfav · n=0 · from 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=0 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
(no rows)

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1w.
- fact: No basket has games in this window.

### [A2.all] all matches — window 1w
cohort=all · n=62 · from 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=62 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.5 | 50.0 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.5 | 50.0 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 57 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 37.5 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 57 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 37.5 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |
| grand | all | total | 61 | 22 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 36.7 | 34 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 27.0 | 62.0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 62 matches, window 1w.
- fact: TP-only win rate 36.7% (22/60) of settled games (22 game won / 38 game lost, 61 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (61).
- fact: 1 void match counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.tponly_won] TP-only · won — window 1w
cohort=tponly_won · n=22 · from 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=22 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 72.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 72.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 36.5 | 89.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 36.5 | 89.5 |
| grand | all | total | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 36.5 | 89.3 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 22 matches, window 1w.
- fact: TP-only win rate 100.0% (22/22) of settled games (22 game won / 0 game lost, 22 games).
- warning: TP-only is the small sample here: 22 games (under 30).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (22).

### [A2.tponly_lost] TP-only · lost — window 1w
cohort=tponly_lost · n=38 · from 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=38 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.5 | 27.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.5 | 27.5 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 35 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18.0 | 49.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 35 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18.0 | 49.5 |
| grand | all | total | 38 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 16.3 | 49.8 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 38 matches, window 1w.
- fact: TP-only win rate 0.0% (0/38) of settled games (0 game won / 38 game lost, 38 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (38).

## [A3] weekly counts — window 1w
What #cvweek draws: games (solid) and wins (dashed) per ISO week per basket. Monday-dated ISO weeks,
  continuous through empty weeks. Count chart — SPX/NAS100 baselines do not apply.
| iso_week | monday | basket | games | wins |
| key | YYYY-MM-DD |  | n | n |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | TP_ONLY | 10 | 4 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | TP_ONLY | 51 | 18 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | NONE | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 62 matches, window 1w (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: Busiest day is 2026-09-10 with 14 games.
- fact: Quietest day is 2026-09-05 with 0 games.
- fact: The last day bucket (2026-09-12) is a partial period.
- fact: Every match with tape in these buckets, split once: won 22 of 61 (36.1% (22/61)), lost 38 of
  61 (62.3% (38/61)), void or pending 1 of 61 (1.6% (1/61)), unknown 0 of 61 (0.0% (0/61)).
- fact: 1 void match counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

## [A4] 5¢ bottom-price histogram — window 1w
What #cvdist draws: 5¢ bins of the favourite's lowest price while bets were open (win.lo). Void and
  open are not in these bars. The page's vertical marker is at X=28¢ (bin 25-30 contains 28). Per
  cohort, won vs lost, baskets collapsed.

### [A4.all] all matches (page default, all cohorts on) — window 1w
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| all | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| all | 5 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| all | 10 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| all | 15 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| all | 20 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| all | 25 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| all | 30 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| all | 35 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| all | 40 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| all | 45 | 50 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| all | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| all | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 62 matches, window 1w (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 0 of 22 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (0.0% (0/22)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 4 of 22 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (18.2% (4/22)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 24 of 38 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (63.2% (24/38)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 33 of 38 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (86.8% (33/38)).
- fact: The 5–10¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (8).
- fact: 1 void match counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.tponly] TP-only fav — window 1w
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| TP-only fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| TP-only fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| TP-only fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| TP-only fav | 20 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| TP-only fav | 25 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| TP-only fav | 30 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| TP-only fav | 35 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| TP-only fav | 40 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| TP-only fav | 45 | 50 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 62 matches, window 1w.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 0 of 22 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (0.0% (0/22)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 4 of 22 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (18.2% (4/22)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 24 of 38 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (63.2% (24/38)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 33 of 38 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (86.8% (33/38)).
- fact: The 5–10¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (8).
- fact: 1 void match counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.agreed] TP + market fav — window 1w
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP + market fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 30 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 35 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1w.
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.mktonly] market-only fav — window 1w
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| market-only fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 30 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 35 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1w.
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.nonfav] nobody's fav — window 1w
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| nobody's fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 30 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 35 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1w.
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.all] all matches — window 1w
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| all matches | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| all matches | 5 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| all matches | 10 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| all matches | 15 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| all matches | 20 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| all matches | 25 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| all matches | 30 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| all matches | 35 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| all matches | 40 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| all matches | 45 | 50 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| all matches | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| all matches | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 62 matches, window 1w.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 0 of 22 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (0.0% (0/22)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 4 of 22 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (18.2% (4/22)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 24 of 38 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (63.2% (24/38)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 33 of 38 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (86.8% (33/38)).
- fact: The 5–10¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (8).
- fact: 1 void match counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.tponly_won] TP-only · won — window 1w
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only · won | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 20 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only · won | 25 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only · won | 30 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| TP-only · won | 35 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| TP-only · won | 40 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TP-only · won | 45 | 50 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only · won | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only · won | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 22 matches, window 1w.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 0 of 22 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (0.0% (0/22)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 4 of 22 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (18.2% (4/22)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.tponly_lost] TP-only · lost — window 1w
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only · lost | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| TP-only · lost | 5 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| TP-only · lost | 10 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| TP-only · lost | 15 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| TP-only · lost | 20 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| TP-only · lost | 25 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| TP-only · lost | 30 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| TP-only · lost | 35 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| TP-only · lost | 40 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TP-only · lost | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 38 matches, window 1w.
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 24 of 38 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (63.2% (24/38)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 33 of 38 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (86.8% (33/38)).
- fact: The 5–10¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (8).

## [A1] summary by sport and basket — window 1m
from 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=217 games · include_open=no · X=28¢ ·
  Y=81¢
same columns as #sumtab. kind=detail|subtotal|grand. Empty groups omitted, as the page does.
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | 45.0 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | 45.0 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 204 | 73 | 128 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 116 | 27 | 63 | 56 | 26.3 | 59.0 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 204 | 73 | 128 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 116 | 27 | 63 | 56 | 26.3 | 59.0 |
| grand | all | total | 215 | 77 | 135 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 122 | 28 | 67 | 59 | 26.0 | 59.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 217 matches, window 1m (2026-08-13 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only win rate 36.3% (77/212) of settled games (77 game won / 135 game lost, 215 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (215).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 2 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

## [A2] summary by sport and basket, split by cohort — window 1m
Each cohort is the page chip of that name (union semantics). Window bounds are the same as [A1]
  (latest-match anchored), then matches are narrowed by applyCohorts.

### [A2.tponly] TP-only fav — window 1m
cohort=tponly · n=217 · from 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=217 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | 45.0 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | 45.0 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 204 | 73 | 128 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 116 | 27 | 63 | 56 | 26.3 | 59.0 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 204 | 73 | 128 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 116 | 27 | 63 | 56 | 26.3 | 59.0 |
| grand | all | total | 215 | 77 | 135 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 122 | 28 | 67 | 59 | 26.0 | 59.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 217 matches, window 1m (2026-08-13 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only win rate 36.3% (77/212) of settled games (77 game won / 135 game lost, 215 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (215).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 2 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.agreed] TP + market fav — window 1m
cohort=agreed · n=0 · from 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=0 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
(no rows)

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1m.
- fact: No basket has games in this window.

### [A2.mktonly] market-only fav — window 1m
cohort=mktonly · n=0 · from 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=0 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
(no rows)

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1m.
- fact: No basket has games in this window.

### [A2.nonfav] nobody's fav — window 1m
cohort=nonfav · n=0 · from 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=0 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
(no rows)

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1m.
- fact: No basket has games in this window.

### [A2.all] all matches — window 1m
cohort=all · n=217 · from 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=217 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | 45.0 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | 45.0 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 204 | 73 | 128 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 116 | 27 | 63 | 56 | 26.3 | 59.0 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 204 | 73 | 128 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 116 | 27 | 63 | 56 | 26.3 | 59.0 |
| grand | all | total | 215 | 77 | 135 | 3 | 2 | 36.3 | 122 | 28 | 67 | 59 | 26.0 | 59.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 217 matches, window 1m.
- fact: TP-only win rate 36.3% (77/212) of settled games (77 game won / 135 game lost, 215 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (215).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 2 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.tponly_won] TP-only · won — window 1m
cohort=tponly_won · n=77 · from 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=77 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 31.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 31.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 72.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 72.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 73 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 27 | 27 | 56 | 56 | 32.5 | 90.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 73 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 27 | 27 | 56 | 56 | 32.5 | 90.5 |
| grand | all | total | 77 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 28 | 28 | 59 | 59 | 32.5 | 90.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 77 matches, window 1m.
- fact: TP-only win rate 100.0% (77/77) of settled games (77 game won / 0 game lost, 77 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (77).

### [A2.tponly_lost] TP-only · lost — window 1m
cohort=tponly_lost · n=135 · from 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=135 games
  · include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5.7 | 72.0 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5.7 | 72.0 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39.5 | 43.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39.5 | 43.5 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 128 | 0 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 88 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 18.3 | 50.0 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 128 | 0 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 88 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 18.3 | 50.0 |
| grand | all | total | 135 | 0 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 93 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 18.0 | 50.0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 135 matches, window 1m.
- fact: TP-only win rate 0.0% (0/135) of settled games (0 game won / 135 game lost, 135 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (135).

## [A3] weekly counts — window 1m
What #cvweek draws: games (solid) and wins (dashed) per ISO week per basket. Monday-dated ISO weeks,
  continuous through empty weeks. Count chart — SPX/NAS100 baselines do not apply.
| iso_week | monday | basket | games | wins |
| key | YYYY-MM-DD |  | n | n |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | TP_ONLY | 29 | 11 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | TP_ONLY | 48 | 18 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | TP_ONLY | 36 | 15 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | TP_ONLY | 51 | 15 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | TP_ONLY | 51 | 18 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | NONE | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 217 matches, window 1m (2026-08-13 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: Busiest day is 2026-09-02 with 14 games.
- fact: Quietest day is 2026-08-28 with 0 games.
- fact: The last day bucket (2026-09-12) is a partial period.
- fact: Every match with tape in these buckets, split once: won 77 of 215 (35.8% (77/215)), lost 135
  of 215 (62.8% (135/215)), void or pending 3 of 215 (1.4% (3/215)), unknown 0 of 215 (0.0%
  (0/215)).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 2 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

## [A4] 5¢ bottom-price histogram — window 1m
What #cvdist draws: 5¢ bins of the favourite's lowest price while bets were open (win.lo). Void and
  open are not in these bars. The page's vertical marker is at X=28¢ (bin 25-30 contains 28). Per
  cohort, won vs lost, baskets collapsed.

### [A4.all] all matches (page default, all cohorts on) — window 1m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| all | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| all | 5 | 10 | 3 | 23 | 26 |
| all | 10 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 17 |
| all | 15 | 20 | 5 | 17 | 22 |
| all | 20 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| all | 25 | 30 | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| all | 30 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 24 |
| all | 35 | 40 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| all | 40 | 45 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| all | 45 | 50 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| all | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| all | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 217 matches, window 1m (2026-08-13 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 13 of 77 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (16.9% (13/77)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 30 of 77 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (39.0% (30/77)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 73 of 135 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.1% (73/135)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 99 of 135 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (73.3% (99/135)).
- fact: The 5–10¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (23).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 2 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.tponly] TP-only fav — window 1m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only fav | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| TP-only fav | 5 | 10 | 3 | 23 | 26 |
| TP-only fav | 10 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 17 |
| TP-only fav | 15 | 20 | 5 | 17 | 22 |
| TP-only fav | 20 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| TP-only fav | 25 | 30 | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| TP-only fav | 30 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 24 |
| TP-only fav | 35 | 40 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| TP-only fav | 40 | 45 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| TP-only fav | 45 | 50 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| TP-only fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 217 matches, window 1m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 13 of 77 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (16.9% (13/77)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 30 of 77 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (39.0% (30/77)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 73 of 135 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.1% (73/135)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 99 of 135 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (73.3% (99/135)).
- fact: The 5–10¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (23).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 2 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.agreed] TP + market fav — window 1m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP + market fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 30 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 35 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1m.
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.mktonly] market-only fav — window 1m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| market-only fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 30 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 35 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1m.
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.nonfav] nobody's fav — window 1m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| nobody's fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 30 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 35 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 1m.
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.all] all matches — window 1m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| all matches | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| all matches | 5 | 10 | 3 | 23 | 26 |
| all matches | 10 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 17 |
| all matches | 15 | 20 | 5 | 17 | 22 |
| all matches | 20 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| all matches | 25 | 30 | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| all matches | 30 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 24 |
| all matches | 35 | 40 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| all matches | 40 | 45 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| all matches | 45 | 50 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| all matches | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| all matches | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 217 matches, window 1m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 13 of 77 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (16.9% (13/77)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 30 of 77 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (39.0% (30/77)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 73 of 135 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.1% (73/135)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 99 of 135 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (73.3% (99/135)).
- fact: The 5–10¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (23).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 2 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.tponly_won] TP-only · won — window 1m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only · won | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TP-only · won | 5 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only · won | 10 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only · won | 15 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| TP-only · won | 20 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| TP-only · won | 25 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| TP-only · won | 30 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| TP-only · won | 35 | 40 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| TP-only · won | 40 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| TP-only · won | 45 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| TP-only · won | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only · won | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 77 matches, window 1m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 13 of 77 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (16.9% (13/77)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 30 of 77 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (39.0% (30/77)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.tponly_lost] TP-only · lost — window 1m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only · lost | 0 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 19 |
| TP-only · lost | 5 | 10 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
| TP-only · lost | 10 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| TP-only · lost | 15 | 20 | 0 | 17 | 17 |
| TP-only · lost | 20 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| TP-only · lost | 25 | 30 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| TP-only · lost | 30 | 35 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| TP-only · lost | 35 | 40 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| TP-only · lost | 40 | 45 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| TP-only · lost | 45 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| TP-only · lost | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 135 matches, window 1m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 73 of 135 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.1% (73/135)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 99 of 135 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (73.3% (99/135)).
- fact: The 5–10¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (23).

## [A1] summary by sport and basket — window 3m
from 2026-06-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=494 games · include_open=no · X=28¢ ·
  Y=81¢
same columns as #sumtab. kind=detail|subtotal|grand. Empty groups omitted, as the page does.
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | boxing | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| subtotal | boxing | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| detail | golf | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| subtotal | golf | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mlb | TP+market | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 44.8 | 89.5 |
| detail | mlb | none | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 55.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 21.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 320 | 119 | 197 | 4 | 3 | 37.7 | 189 | 49 | 94 | 83 | 22.8 | 57.7 |
| detail | tennis | TP+market | 80 | 46 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 59.7 | 6 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 51.0 | 91.5 |
| detail | tennis | none | 69 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 34.3 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 25.0 | 65.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 469 | 188 | 272 | 9 | 4 | 40.9 | 235 | 59 | 166 | 137 | 28.0 | 65.5 |
| grand | all | total | 490 | 195 | 286 | 9 | 4 | 40.5 | 245 | 61 | 174 | 142 | 28.3 | 65.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window 3m (2026-07-19 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only win rate 37.2% (123/331) of settled games (123 game won / 208 game lost, 335 games).
- fact: TP+market win rate 59.5% (47/79) of settled games (47 game won / 32 game lost, 82 games).
- fact: none win rate 35.2% (25/71) of settled games (25 game won / 46 game lost, 73 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (335).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

## [A2] summary by sport and basket, split by cohort — window 3m
Each cohort is the page chip of that name (union semantics). Window bounds are the same as [A1]
  (latest-match anchored), then matches are narrowed by applyCohorts.

### [A2.tponly] TP-only fav — window 3m
cohort=tponly · n=338 · from 2026-06-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=338 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11.5 | 82.0 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 320 | 119 | 197 | 4 | 3 | 37.7 | 189 | 49 | 94 | 83 | 22.8 | 57.7 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 320 | 119 | 197 | 4 | 3 | 37.7 | 189 | 49 | 94 | 83 | 22.8 | 57.7 |
| grand | all | total | 335 | 123 | 208 | 4 | 3 | 37.2 | 197 | 50 | 99 | 86 | 22.5 | 57.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 338 matches, window 3m (2026-07-26 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only win rate 37.2% (123/331) of settled games (123 game won / 208 game lost, 335 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (335).
- fact: 4 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 3 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.agreed] TP + market fav — window 3m
cohort=agreed · n=83 · from 2026-06-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=83 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP+market | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 44.8 | 89.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 44.8 | 89.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP+market | 80 | 46 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 59.7 | 6 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 51.0 | 91.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 80 | 46 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 59.7 | 6 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 51.0 | 91.5 |
| grand | all | total | 82 | 47 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 59.5 | 6 | 1 | 54 | 43 | 51.0 | 91.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 83 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP+market win rate 59.5% (47/79) of settled games (47 game won / 32 game lost, 82 games).
- fact: TP+market has the most games (82).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.mktonly] market-only fav — window 3m
cohort=mktonly · n=0 · from 2026-06-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=0 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
(no rows)

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 3m.
- fact: No basket has games in this window.

### [A2.nonfav] nobody's fav — window 3m
cohort=nonfav · n=73 · from 2026-06-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=73 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | boxing | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| subtotal | boxing | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| detail | golf | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| subtotal | golf | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| detail | mlb | none | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 55.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 55.5 |
| detail | tennis | none | 69 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 34.3 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 25.0 | 65.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 69 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 34.3 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 25.0 | 65.5 |
| grand | all | total | 73 | 25 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 35.2 | 42 | 10 | 21 | 13 | 25.0 | 65.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 73 matches, window 3m.
- fact: none win rate 35.2% (25/71) of settled games (25 game won / 46 game lost, 73 games).
- fact: none has the most games (73).
- fact: 2 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.all] all matches — window 3m
cohort=all · n=494 · from 2026-06-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=494 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | boxing | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| subtotal | boxing | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| detail | golf | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| subtotal | golf | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mlb | TP+market | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 44.8 | 89.5 |
| detail | mlb | none | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 55.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 21.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 320 | 119 | 197 | 4 | 3 | 37.7 | 189 | 49 | 94 | 83 | 22.8 | 57.7 |
| detail | tennis | TP+market | 80 | 46 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 59.7 | 6 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 51.0 | 91.5 |
| detail | tennis | none | 69 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 34.3 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 25.0 | 65.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 469 | 188 | 272 | 9 | 4 | 40.9 | 235 | 59 | 166 | 137 | 28.0 | 65.5 |
| grand | all | total | 490 | 195 | 286 | 9 | 4 | 40.5 | 245 | 61 | 174 | 142 | 28.3 | 65.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP-only win rate 37.2% (123/331) of settled games (123 game won / 208 game lost, 335 games).
- fact: TP+market win rate 59.5% (47/79) of settled games (47 game won / 32 game lost, 82 games).
- fact: none win rate 35.2% (25/71) of settled games (25 game won / 46 game lost, 73 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (335).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.tponly_won] TP-only · won — window 3m
cohort=tponly_won · n=123 · from 2026-06-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=123 games
  · include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 31.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 31.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 72.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 72.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 119 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 49 | 49 | 83 | 83 | 32.0 | 90.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 119 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 49 | 49 | 83 | 83 | 32.0 | 90.5 |
| grand | all | total | 123 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 50 | 50 | 86 | 86 | 32.0 | 90.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 123 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP-only win rate 100.0% (123/123) of settled games (123 game won / 0 game lost, 123 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (123).

### [A2.tponly_lost] TP-only · lost — window 3m
cohort=tponly_lost · n=208 · from 2026-06-12T18:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=208 games
  · include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9.5 | 55.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9.5 | 55.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.5 | 42.0 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.5 | 42.0 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 197 | 0 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 139 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 18.5 | 49.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 197 | 0 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 139 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 18.5 | 49.5 |
| grand | all | total | 208 | 0 | 208 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 146 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 18.3 | 49.8 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 208 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP-only win rate 0.0% (0/208) of settled games (0 game won / 208 game lost, 208 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (208).

## [A3] weekly counts — window 3m
What #cvweek draws: games (solid) and wins (dashed) per ISO week per basket. Monday-dated ISO weeks,
  continuous through empty weeks. Count chart — SPX/NAS100 baselines do not apply.
| iso_week | monday | basket | games | wins |
| key | YYYY-MM-DD |  | n | n |
| 2026-W24 | 2026-06-08 | TP_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W24 | 2026-06-08 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W24 | 2026-06-08 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W24 | 2026-06-08 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W25 | 2026-06-15 | TP_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W25 | 2026-06-15 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W25 | 2026-06-15 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W25 | 2026-06-15 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W26 | 2026-06-22 | TP_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W26 | 2026-06-22 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W26 | 2026-06-22 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W26 | 2026-06-22 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W27 | 2026-06-29 | TP_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W27 | 2026-06-29 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W27 | 2026-06-29 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W27 | 2026-06-29 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W28 | 2026-07-06 | TP_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W28 | 2026-07-06 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W28 | 2026-07-06 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W28 | 2026-07-06 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W29 | 2026-07-13 | TP_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W29 | 2026-07-13 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W29 | 2026-07-13 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W29 | 2026-07-13 | NONE | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-W30 | 2026-07-20 | TP_ONLY | 4 | 2 |
| 2026-W30 | 2026-07-20 | AGREED | 4 | 1 |
| 2026-W30 | 2026-07-20 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W30 | 2026-07-20 | NONE | 64 | 21 |
| 2026-W31 | 2026-07-27 | TP_ONLY | 46 | 15 |
| 2026-W31 | 2026-07-27 | AGREED | 54 | 31 |
| 2026-W31 | 2026-07-27 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W31 | 2026-07-27 | NONE | 2 | 1 |
| 2026-W32 | 2026-08-03 | TP_ONLY | 40 | 13 |
| 2026-W32 | 2026-08-03 | AGREED | 24 | 15 |
| 2026-W32 | 2026-08-03 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W32 | 2026-08-03 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | TP_ONLY | 59 | 27 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | TP_ONLY | 48 | 18 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | TP_ONLY | 36 | 15 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | TP_ONLY | 51 | 15 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | TP_ONLY | 51 | 18 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | NONE | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window 3m (2026-07-19 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: Busiest day is 2026-07-28 with 21 games.
- fact: Quietest day is 2026-06-12 with 0 games.
- fact: The last day bucket (2026-09-12) is a partial period.
- fact: Every match with tape in these buckets, split once: won 195 of 490 (39.8% (195/490)), lost
  286 of 490 (58.4% (286/490)), void or pending 9 of 490 (1.8% (9/490)), unknown 0 of 490 (0.0%
  (0/490)).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

## [A4] 5¢ bottom-price histogram — window 3m
What #cvdist draws: 5¢ bins of the favourite's lowest price while bets were open (win.lo). Void and
  open are not in these bars. The page's vertical marker is at X=28¢ (bin 25-30 contains 28). Per
  cohort, won vs lost, baskets collapsed.

### [A4.all] all matches (page default, all cohorts on) — window 3m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| all | 0 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 45 |
| all | 5 | 10 | 5 | 37 | 42 |
| all | 10 | 15 | 9 | 32 | 41 |
| all | 15 | 20 | 13 | 34 | 47 |
| all | 20 | 25 | 12 | 28 | 40 |
| all | 25 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| all | 30 | 35 | 22 | 30 | 52 |
| all | 35 | 40 | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| all | 40 | 45 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| all | 45 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 31 |
| all | 50 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| all | 55 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| all | 60 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| all | 65 | 70 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| all | 70 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| all | 75 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| all | 80 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| all | 85 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| all | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window 3m (2026-07-19 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 27 of 123 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (22.0% (27/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 53 of 123 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (43.1% (53/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 113 of 208 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.3% (113/208)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 154 of 208 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (74.0% (154/208)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-won matches: 1 of 47 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (2.1% (1/47)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-won matches: 2 of 47 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (4.3% (2/47)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-lost matches: 4 of 32 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (12.5% (4/32)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-lost matches: 5 of 32 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (15.6% (5/32)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (39).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.tponly] TP-only fav — window 3m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only fav | 0 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 37 |
| TP-only fav | 5 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 37 |
| TP-only fav | 10 | 15 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
| TP-only fav | 15 | 20 | 10 | 24 | 34 |
| TP-only fav | 20 | 25 | 11 | 23 | 34 |
| TP-only fav | 25 | 30 | 15 | 18 | 33 |
| TP-only fav | 30 | 35 | 19 | 17 | 36 |
| TP-only fav | 35 | 40 | 22 | 17 | 39 |
| TP-only fav | 40 | 45 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| TP-only fav | 45 | 50 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| TP-only fav | 50 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 338 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 27 of 123 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (22.0% (27/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 53 of 123 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (43.1% (53/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 113 of 208 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.3% (113/208)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 154 of 208 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (74.0% (154/208)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (33).
- fact: 4 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 3 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.agreed] TP + market fav — window 3m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP + market fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 10 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TP + market fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TP + market fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TP + market fav | 25 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP + market fav | 30 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| TP + market fav | 35 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TP + market fav | 40 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TP + market fav | 45 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| TP + market fav | 50 | 55 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| TP + market fav | 55 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| TP + market fav | 60 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| TP + market fav | 65 | 70 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| TP + market fav | 70 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| TP + market fav | 75 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP + market fav | 80 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TP + market fav | 85 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TP + market fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 83 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP + market fav game-won matches: 1 of 47 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (2.1% (1/47)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-won matches: 2 of 47 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (4.3% (2/47)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-lost matches: 4 of 32 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (12.5% (4/32)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-lost matches: 5 of 32 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (15.6% (5/32)).
- fact: The 30–35¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (7).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.mktonly] market-only fav — window 3m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| market-only fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 30 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 35 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window 3m.
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.nonfav] nobody's fav — window 3m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| nobody's fav | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| nobody's fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| nobody's fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| nobody's fav | 15 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| nobody's fav | 20 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| nobody's fav | 25 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| nobody's fav | 30 | 35 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| nobody's fav | 35 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| nobody's fav | 40 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| nobody's fav | 45 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| nobody's fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 60 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| nobody's fav | 65 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| nobody's fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 73 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 5 of 25 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (20.0% (5/25)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 13 of 25 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (52.0% (13/25)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 25 of 46 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.3% (25/46)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 33 of 46 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (71.7% (33/46)).
- fact: The 15–20¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (9).
- fact: 2 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.all] all matches — window 3m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| all matches | 0 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 45 |
| all matches | 5 | 10 | 5 | 37 | 42 |
| all matches | 10 | 15 | 9 | 32 | 41 |
| all matches | 15 | 20 | 13 | 34 | 47 |
| all matches | 20 | 25 | 12 | 28 | 40 |
| all matches | 25 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| all matches | 30 | 35 | 22 | 30 | 52 |
| all matches | 35 | 40 | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| all matches | 40 | 45 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| all matches | 45 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 31 |
| all matches | 50 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| all matches | 55 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| all matches | 60 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| all matches | 65 | 70 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| all matches | 70 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| all matches | 75 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| all matches | 80 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| all matches | 85 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| all matches | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 33 of 195 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (16.9% (33/195)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 68 of 195 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (34.9% (68/195)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 142 of 286 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (49.7% (142/286)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 192 of 286 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (67.1% (192/286)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (39).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.tponly_won] TP-only · won — window 3m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only · won | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| TP-only · won | 5 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| TP-only · won | 10 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| TP-only · won | 15 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| TP-only · won | 20 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| TP-only · won | 25 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| TP-only · won | 30 | 35 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
| TP-only · won | 35 | 40 | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| TP-only · won | 40 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| TP-only · won | 45 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| TP-only · won | 50 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only · won | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only · won | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 123 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 27 of 123 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (22.0% (27/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 53 of 123 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (43.1% (53/123)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.tponly_lost] TP-only · lost — window 3m
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only · lost | 0 | 5 | 0 | 33 | 33 |
| TP-only · lost | 5 | 10 | 0 | 32 | 32 |
| TP-only · lost | 10 | 15 | 0 | 24 | 24 |
| TP-only · lost | 15 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 24 |
| TP-only · lost | 20 | 25 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
| TP-only · lost | 25 | 30 | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| TP-only · lost | 30 | 35 | 0 | 17 | 17 |
| TP-only · lost | 35 | 40 | 0 | 17 | 17 |
| TP-only · lost | 40 | 45 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| TP-only · lost | 45 | 50 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| TP-only · lost | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 208 matches, window 3m.
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 113 of 208 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.3% (113/208)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 154 of 208 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (74.0% (154/208)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (33).

## [A1] summary by sport and basket — window all
from 2026-07-18T20:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=494 games · include_open=no · X=28¢ ·
  Y=81¢
same columns as #sumtab. kind=detail|subtotal|grand. Empty groups omitted, as the page does.
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | boxing | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| subtotal | boxing | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| detail | golf | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| subtotal | golf | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mlb | TP+market | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 44.8 | 89.5 |
| detail | mlb | none | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 55.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 21.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 320 | 119 | 197 | 4 | 3 | 37.7 | 189 | 49 | 94 | 83 | 22.8 | 57.7 |
| detail | tennis | TP+market | 80 | 46 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 59.7 | 6 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 51.0 | 91.5 |
| detail | tennis | none | 69 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 34.3 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 25.0 | 65.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 469 | 188 | 272 | 9 | 4 | 40.9 | 235 | 59 | 166 | 137 | 28.0 | 65.5 |
| grand | all | total | 490 | 195 | 286 | 9 | 4 | 40.5 | 245 | 61 | 174 | 142 | 28.3 | 65.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window all (2026-07-19 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only win rate 37.2% (123/331) of settled games (123 game won / 208 game lost, 335 games).
- fact: TP+market win rate 59.5% (47/79) of settled games (47 game won / 32 game lost, 82 games).
- fact: none win rate 35.2% (25/71) of settled games (25 game won / 46 game lost, 73 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (335).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

## [A2] summary by sport and basket, split by cohort — window all
Each cohort is the page chip of that name (union semantics). Window bounds are the same as [A1]
  (latest-match anchored), then matches are narrowed by applyCohorts.

### [A2.tponly] TP-only fav — window all
cohort=tponly · n=338 · from 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=338 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11.5 | 82.0 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 320 | 119 | 197 | 4 | 3 | 37.7 | 189 | 49 | 94 | 83 | 22.8 | 57.7 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 320 | 119 | 197 | 4 | 3 | 37.7 | 189 | 49 | 94 | 83 | 22.8 | 57.7 |
| grand | all | total | 335 | 123 | 208 | 4 | 3 | 37.2 | 197 | 50 | 99 | 86 | 22.5 | 57.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 338 matches, window all (2026-07-26 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only win rate 37.2% (123/331) of settled games (123 game won / 208 game lost, 335 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (335).
- fact: 4 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 3 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.agreed] TP + market fav — window all
cohort=agreed · n=83 · from 2026-07-25T23:15:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · n=83 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP+market | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 44.8 | 89.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 44.8 | 89.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP+market | 80 | 46 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 59.7 | 6 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 51.0 | 91.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 80 | 46 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 59.7 | 6 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 51.0 | 91.5 |
| grand | all | total | 82 | 47 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 59.5 | 6 | 1 | 54 | 43 | 51.0 | 91.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 83 matches, window all.
- fact: TP+market win rate 59.5% (47/79) of settled games (47 game won / 32 game lost, 82 games).
- fact: TP+market has the most games (82).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.mktonly] market-only fav — window all
cohort=mktonly · n=0 · from null to null · n=0 games · include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
(no rows)

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window all.
- fact: No basket has games in this window.

### [A2.nonfav] nobody's fav — window all
cohort=nonfav · n=73 · from 2026-07-18T20:30:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T01:00:00.000Z · n=73 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | boxing | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| subtotal | boxing | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| detail | golf | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| subtotal | golf | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| detail | mlb | none | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 55.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 55.5 |
| detail | tennis | none | 69 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 34.3 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 25.0 | 65.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 69 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 34.3 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 25.0 | 65.5 |
| grand | all | total | 73 | 25 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 35.2 | 42 | 10 | 21 | 13 | 25.0 | 65.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 73 matches, window all.
- fact: none win rate 35.2% (25/71) of settled games (25 game won / 46 game lost, 73 games).
- fact: none has the most games (73).
- fact: 2 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.all] all matches — window all
cohort=all · n=494 · from 2026-07-18T20:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=494 games ·
  include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | boxing | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| subtotal | boxing | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60.5 | 94.0 |
| detail | golf | none | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| subtotal | golf | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mlb | TP+market | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 44.8 | 89.5 |
| detail | mlb | none | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 55.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 21.5 | 82.0 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5 | 43.5 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 320 | 119 | 197 | 4 | 3 | 37.7 | 189 | 49 | 94 | 83 | 22.8 | 57.7 |
| detail | tennis | TP+market | 80 | 46 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 59.7 | 6 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 51.0 | 91.5 |
| detail | tennis | none | 69 | 23 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 34.3 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 25.0 | 65.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 469 | 188 | 272 | 9 | 4 | 40.9 | 235 | 59 | 166 | 137 | 28.0 | 65.5 |
| grand | all | total | 490 | 195 | 286 | 9 | 4 | 40.5 | 245 | 61 | 174 | 142 | 28.3 | 65.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window all.
- fact: TP-only win rate 37.2% (123/331) of settled games (123 game won / 208 game lost, 335 games).
- fact: TP+market win rate 59.5% (47/79) of settled games (47 game won / 32 game lost, 82 games).
- fact: none win rate 35.2% (25/71) of settled games (25 game won / 46 game lost, 73 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (335).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A2.tponly_won] TP-only · won — window all
cohort=tponly_won · n=123 · from 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=123 games
  · include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 31.5 | 92.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 31.5 | 92.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 72.5 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 72.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 119 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 49 | 49 | 83 | 83 | 32.0 | 90.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 119 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 49 | 49 | 83 | 83 | 32.0 | 90.5 |
| grand | all | total | 123 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 50 | 50 | 86 | 86 | 32.0 | 90.5 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 123 matches, window all.
- fact: TP-only win rate 100.0% (123/123) of settled games (123 game won / 0 game lost, 123 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (123).

### [A2.tponly_lost] TP-only · lost — window all
cohort=tponly_lost · n=208 · from 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · n=208 games
  · include_open=no · X=28¢ · Y=81¢
| kind | sport | basket | games | won | lost | void | open | win_rate_pct | reached_le_28c | reached_le_28_won | reached_ge_81c | reached_ge_81_won | med_buy_lo_c | med_tape_hi_c |
|  |  |  | n | n | n | n | n | % | n | n | n | n | ¢ | ¢ |
| detail | mlb | TP-only | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9.5 | 55.5 |
| subtotal | mlb | subtotal | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9.5 | 55.5 |
| detail | mma | TP-only | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.5 | 42.0 |
| subtotal | mma | subtotal | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.5 | 42.0 |
| detail | npb | TP-only | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| subtotal | npb | subtotal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.8 | 58.5 |
| detail | tennis | TP-only | 197 | 0 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 139 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 18.5 | 49.5 |
| subtotal | tennis | subtotal | 197 | 0 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 139 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 18.5 | 49.5 |
| grand | all | total | 208 | 0 | 208 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 146 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 18.3 | 49.8 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 208 matches, window all.
- fact: TP-only win rate 0.0% (0/208) of settled games (0 game won / 208 game lost, 208 games).
- fact: TP-only has the most games (208).

## [A3] weekly counts — window all
What #cvweek draws: games (solid) and wins (dashed) per ISO week per basket. Monday-dated ISO weeks,
  continuous through empty weeks. Count chart — SPX/NAS100 baselines do not apply.
| iso_week | monday | basket | games | wins |
| key | YYYY-MM-DD |  | n | n |
| 2026-W29 | 2026-07-13 | TP_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W29 | 2026-07-13 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W29 | 2026-07-13 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W29 | 2026-07-13 | NONE | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-W30 | 2026-07-20 | TP_ONLY | 4 | 2 |
| 2026-W30 | 2026-07-20 | AGREED | 4 | 1 |
| 2026-W30 | 2026-07-20 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W30 | 2026-07-20 | NONE | 64 | 21 |
| 2026-W31 | 2026-07-27 | TP_ONLY | 46 | 15 |
| 2026-W31 | 2026-07-27 | AGREED | 54 | 31 |
| 2026-W31 | 2026-07-27 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W31 | 2026-07-27 | NONE | 2 | 1 |
| 2026-W32 | 2026-08-03 | TP_ONLY | 40 | 13 |
| 2026-W32 | 2026-08-03 | AGREED | 24 | 15 |
| 2026-W32 | 2026-08-03 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W32 | 2026-08-03 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | TP_ONLY | 59 | 27 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W33 | 2026-08-10 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | TP_ONLY | 48 | 18 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-17 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | TP_ONLY | 36 | 15 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-24 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | TP_ONLY | 51 | 15 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-08-31 | NONE | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | TP_ONLY | 51 | 18 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | AGREED | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | MKT_ONLY | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-07 | NONE | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window all (2026-07-19 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: Busiest day is 2026-07-28 with 21 games.
- fact: Quietest day is 2026-08-28 with 0 games.
- fact: The last day bucket (2026-09-12) is a partial period.
- fact: Every match with tape in these buckets, split once: won 195 of 490 (39.8% (195/490)), lost
  286 of 490 (58.4% (286/490)), void or pending 9 of 490 (1.8% (9/490)), unknown 0 of 490 (0.0%
  (0/490)).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

## [A4] 5¢ bottom-price histogram — window all
What #cvdist draws: 5¢ bins of the favourite's lowest price while bets were open (win.lo). Void and
  open are not in these bars. The page's vertical marker is at X=28¢ (bin 25-30 contains 28). Per
  cohort, won vs lost, baskets collapsed.

### [A4.all] all matches (page default, all cohorts on) — window all
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| all | 0 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 45 |
| all | 5 | 10 | 5 | 37 | 42 |
| all | 10 | 15 | 9 | 32 | 41 |
| all | 15 | 20 | 13 | 34 | 47 |
| all | 20 | 25 | 12 | 28 | 40 |
| all | 25 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| all | 30 | 35 | 22 | 30 | 52 |
| all | 35 | 40 | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| all | 40 | 45 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| all | 45 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 31 |
| all | 50 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| all | 55 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| all | 60 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| all | 65 | 70 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| all | 70 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| all | 75 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| all | 80 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| all | 85 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| all | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window all (2026-07-19 to 2026-09-13).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 27 of 123 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (22.0% (27/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 53 of 123 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (43.1% (53/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 113 of 208 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.3% (113/208)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 154 of 208 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (74.0% (154/208)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-won matches: 1 of 47 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (2.1% (1/47)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-won matches: 2 of 47 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (4.3% (2/47)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-lost matches: 4 of 32 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (12.5% (4/32)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-lost matches: 5 of 32 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (15.6% (5/32)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (39).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.tponly] TP-only fav — window all
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only fav | 0 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 37 |
| TP-only fav | 5 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 37 |
| TP-only fav | 10 | 15 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
| TP-only fav | 15 | 20 | 10 | 24 | 34 |
| TP-only fav | 20 | 25 | 11 | 23 | 34 |
| TP-only fav | 25 | 30 | 15 | 18 | 33 |
| TP-only fav | 30 | 35 | 19 | 17 | 36 |
| TP-only fav | 35 | 40 | 22 | 17 | 39 |
| TP-only fav | 40 | 45 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| TP-only fav | 45 | 50 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| TP-only fav | 50 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 338 matches, window all.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 27 of 123 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (22.0% (27/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 53 of 123 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (43.1% (53/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 113 of 208 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.3% (113/208)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 154 of 208 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (74.0% (154/208)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (33).
- fact: 4 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 3 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.agreed] TP + market fav — window all
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP + market fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 10 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TP + market fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TP + market fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TP + market fav | 25 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP + market fav | 30 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| TP + market fav | 35 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TP + market fav | 40 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TP + market fav | 45 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| TP + market fav | 50 | 55 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| TP + market fav | 55 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| TP + market fav | 60 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| TP + market fav | 65 | 70 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| TP + market fav | 70 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| TP + market fav | 75 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP + market fav | 80 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TP + market fav | 85 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TP + market fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP + market fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 83 matches, window all.
- fact: TP + market fav game-won matches: 1 of 47 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (2.1% (1/47)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-won matches: 2 of 47 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (4.3% (2/47)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-lost matches: 4 of 32 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (12.5% (4/32)).
- fact: TP + market fav game-lost matches: 5 of 32 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (15.6% (5/32)).
- fact: The 30–35¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (7).
- fact: 3 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 1 open / unrecorded match counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.mktonly] market-only fav — window all
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| market-only fav | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 20 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 30 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 35 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 40 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| market-only fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 0 matches, window all.
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.nonfav] nobody's fav — window all
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| nobody's fav | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| nobody's fav | 5 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| nobody's fav | 10 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| nobody's fav | 15 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| nobody's fav | 20 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| nobody's fav | 25 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| nobody's fav | 30 | 35 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| nobody's fav | 35 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| nobody's fav | 40 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| nobody's fav | 45 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| nobody's fav | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 60 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| nobody's fav | 65 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| nobody's fav | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| nobody's fav | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 73 matches, window all.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 5 of 25 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (20.0% (5/25)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 13 of 25 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (52.0% (13/25)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 25 of 46 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.3% (25/46)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 33 of 46 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (71.7% (33/46)).
- fact: The 15–20¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (9).
- fact: 2 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.all] all matches — window all
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| all matches | 0 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 45 |
| all matches | 5 | 10 | 5 | 37 | 42 |
| all matches | 10 | 15 | 9 | 32 | 41 |
| all matches | 15 | 20 | 13 | 34 | 47 |
| all matches | 20 | 25 | 12 | 28 | 40 |
| all matches | 25 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| all matches | 30 | 35 | 22 | 30 | 52 |
| all matches | 35 | 40 | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| all matches | 40 | 45 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| all matches | 45 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 31 |
| all matches | 50 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| all matches | 55 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| all matches | 60 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| all matches | 65 | 70 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| all matches | 70 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| all matches | 75 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| all matches | 80 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| all matches | 85 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| all matches | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| all matches | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 494 matches, window all.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 33 of 195 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (16.9% (33/195)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 68 of 195 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (34.9% (68/195)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 142 of 286 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (49.7% (142/286)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 192 of 286 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (67.1% (192/286)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (39).
- fact: 9 void matches counted separately and not in the win rate.
- fact: 4 open / unrecorded matches counted separately and not in the win rate.

### [A4.tponly_won] TP-only · won — window all
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only · won | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| TP-only · won | 5 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| TP-only · won | 10 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| TP-only · won | 15 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| TP-only · won | 20 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| TP-only · won | 25 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| TP-only · won | 30 | 35 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
| TP-only · won | 35 | 40 | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| TP-only · won | 40 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| TP-only · won | 45 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| TP-only · won | 50 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TP-only · won | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 60 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TP-only · won | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · won | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 123 matches, window all.
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 27 of 123 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (22.0% (27/123)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-won matches: 53 of 123 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (43.1% (53/123)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (0).

### [A4.tponly_lost] TP-only · lost — window all
| cohort | bin_lo_c | bin_hi_c | won | lost | n |
|  | ¢ | ¢ | n | n | n |
| TP-only · lost | 0 | 5 | 0 | 33 | 33 |
| TP-only · lost | 5 | 10 | 0 | 32 | 32 |
| TP-only · lost | 10 | 15 | 0 | 24 | 24 |
| TP-only · lost | 15 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 24 |
| TP-only · lost | 20 | 25 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
| TP-only · lost | 25 | 30 | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| TP-only · lost | 30 | 35 | 0 | 17 | 17 |
| TP-only · lost | 35 | 40 | 0 | 17 | 17 |
| TP-only · lost | 40 | 45 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| TP-only · lost | 45 | 50 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| TP-only · lost | 50 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 55 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 60 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 65 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 70 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 75 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 80 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 85 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 90 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TP-only · lost | 95 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Conclusions:
- fact: 208 matches, window all.
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 113 of 208 had a buy-window low under 20¢ (54.3% (113/208)).
- fact: TP-only fav game-lost matches: 154 of 208 had a buy-window low under 30¢ (74.0% (154/208)).
- fact: The 0–5¢ bin has the most game-lost matches (33).

## [A5] page control defaults
These are analysis.php first-paint defaults (localStorage pm.analysis.* overlays them in the
  browser; this file always uses the defaults).
| control | key | default | notes |
|  | pm.analysis.* |  |  |
| window | window | all | 1d · 1w · 1m · 3m · 1y · all · custom. Ends at latest match, never clock-now. |
| from | from |  | custom UTC calendar day T00:00:00.000Z |
| to | to |  | custom UTC calendar day T23:59:59.999Z |
| sports | sportOff | all on | off-set stored; a sport that appears later defaults ON |
| baskets | basketOff | all on | TP-only / TP+market / market-only / none |
| reached-low X¢ | xCents | 28 | buy-window low, win.lo |
| reached-high Y¢ | yCents | 81 | tape high, tape.hi |
| include open | includeOpen | no | open still fills the Open column either way |
| sort | sortKey/sortDir | sport asc | click a column header to sort |
| cohorts | pm.analysis.<chart>.cohorts | all five ON | per-chart chips after workstream E |

## [A6] buy-ladder backtest
Verbatim from odds_data/ladder_backtest.json. Stake/net/ROI/CI are whatever that file already
  publishes.
| strategy | exit | fills | stake | net | roi | ci_lo..ci_hi | top5_share |
|  |  | n | $ | $ | % |  |  |
| C_ladder_open_k0.80_s0.65 | HOLD | 598 | 598 | 156.56 | 0.262 | -51.4..391.6 | 0.983 |
| A_fixed_openkill | HOLD | 569 | 569 | 148.11 | 0.26 | -45.1..359.2 | 1.078 |
| A_fixed_no_openkill | HOLD | 1103 | 1103 | 128.09 | 0.116 | -145..421.8 | 1.452 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.85_s0.65 | HOLD | 611 | 611 | 122.21 | 0.2 | -82.7..346 | 1.201 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.80_s0.75 | HOLD | 627 | 627 | 109.95 | 0.175 | -82..321.8 | 1.231 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.95_s0.65 | HOLD | 647 | 647 | 106.53 | 0.165 | -80.2..315.8 | 1.253 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.90_s0.65 | HOLD | 623 | 623 | 102.03 | 0.164 | -91.7..321.7 | 1.4 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.80_s0.65 | SHIP | 598 | 598 | 101.43 | 0.17 | -82.9..294.7 | 1.209 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.85_s0.75 | HOLD | 642 | 642 | 100.27 | 0.156 | -85..302.4 | 1.274 |
| A_fixed_openkill | SHIP | 569 | 569 | 92.89 | 0.163 | -75.3..267.8 | 1.365 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.90_s0.75 | HOLD | 656 | 656 | 91.87 | 0.14 | -91..290.8 | 1.372 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.80_s0.85 | HOLD | 649 | 649 | 91.77 | 0.141 | -89..299.7 | 1.37 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.90_s0.85 | HOLD | 686 | 686 | 82.51 | 0.12 | -83.6..268.2 | 1.367 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.95_s0.85 | HOLD | 713 | 713 | 77.38 | 0.109 | -80.3..254.1 | 1.303 |
| C_ladder_open_k0.85_s0.85 | HOLD | 661 | 661 | 75.01 | 0.113 | -91.8..265.7 | 1.589 |
cohort=tponly · n_matches=331

Conclusions:
- fact: 331 matches, window all.
- fact: This table ranks 94 strategy × exit rows. The best row of 94 random rows also looks good.
- fact: Base win rate of this cohort is 37.2% (123/331) of settled games (123 game won / 208 game
  lost).
- fact: Top strategy by net is C_ladder_open_k0.80_s0.65 HOLD: net 156.6 units, ROI 26.2% (156.6
  units on 598 fills), 598 fills.
- fact: The 95 percent interval -51.4 to 391.6 straddles zero, so this net is not distinguishable
  from zero.
- fact: Negative shipping-ladder rung: rung 46¢ HOLD -2.4 SHIP -6.7.
- fact: SHIP returned 37.3% (55.2 of 148.1) less than HOLD (-55.2 units).
- fact: 5 of 236 filled matches carry 107.8% (+$159.62 of +$148.11) of this cell's gains.
- fact: Anchor = min(pregame median, open). Rungs at anchor × [0.75, 0.52, 0.35]. No rung above 0.36
  absolute. Equal stake, or weight the middle rung. candidate — not live; money rules change only by
  owner decision on superadmin
- fact: 44314 phantom prints dropped, whole grid (35719 settled, 6169 empty book, 2426 sub tick).