Part 1
Original text by @BITCOINFUNDMGR.
How to predict the winner of the next sports game.
Applies to any prediction market.
First start at http://timeportal.pro/polymarket
It looks complex because this is our alpha version. We'll figure out how to simplify over time.
Higher numbers means more certainty. The numbers in white are called Gap scores. They measure the power gap between two teams or two players.
If you expand a tile and scroll down, you'll see that there are several columns in every table. The most important one is the body because sports are mostly body nervous system.
The blue color in the body column means this particular player is supercharged and unusually powerful on this day. Red means they are incapacitated or weak.
The color borders highlights any tile where one side has an unusual advantage. The lime color highlights when one side is extremely powerful on game date. The tangerine color highlights a tile on one side is extremely weak. The cherry color tiles highlight when a tile contains one side that's unusually powerful and the other side is also unusually weak.
The Cherry colored tiles are the ones that are most likely to win. But I would still take profits when you have 300% profit. And I would only bet when the tiles favorite pick is the underdog. Because if they are the market favorite, there's not much profit on the bone.
There's a curious slider in the main controls that simply says GD weight. This one should be adjusted per sport. I would have made this automatic so that the user doesn't even see this setting. But I only have about 5,000 games in the database to back test against. So I left it as a manual option set right in between for All sports.
What it does is changes the priority or the weighting of the influence the hinge player or main athlete gets from the other main athlete or from the day itself. You know how you can feel great on one day for no other reason just waking up out of bed and then feel even better because you met someone who said something? Which one influenced you more on that date? Same when you feel crappy. You wake up and you feel bad and then you meet that asshole in the cubicle next to you. Which had more influence on your performance that date?
Pitchers and quarterbacks never even see each other. Tennis players stare at each other across the net after shaking hands once. MMA fighters swap sweat and spit and tears and blood together. So every sport, your opponent is going to have a different level of influence on your performance that day.
Use the slider with the sports dynamic in mind.
